BHP has revised its investment estimate for Jansen Stage 1 in Saskatchewan, Canada to US$8.4 billion, citing inflation, increased construction costs, scope changes, and productivity challenges. The project’s first production is now expected in mid-2027. Most of the recent cost increase relates to additional construction hours and materials not previously accounted for. In response, BHP has implemented measures to improve productivity and project management.
Jansen Stage 1 is now 75% complete and aims to produce about 4.15 Mt/y of potash, with an updated internal rate of return between 7.9% and 9.1%, and a payback period of 11 to 15 years. EBITDA margins are projected at 63–64%. BHP plans to apply lessons from Stage 1 to future stages and expects to update the market on Stage 2 costs in Q4 FY2026. The Jansen project could eventually expand to a capacity of 16–17 Mt/y, subject to approvals.
